Property Insights Report | The Australian property market regained momentum in 2024

Total property settlement volumes rose by 6.5% across Australia’s mainland states in the Mar-24 Qtr, compared to the same period one year earlier. Settlement volumes in the Mar-24 Qtr were 8.0% higher than in the Mar-20 Qtr, immediately prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused significant disruptions to property markets throughout 2020 and 2021.

• In volume terms, a total of 154,700 individual property titles were transacted in the Mar-24 Qtr across the five mainland states, up 6.5% from the same period one year earlier (Mar-23 Qtr).
• Across the five mainland states, the highest number of sales was in QLD (43,084), followed by VIC (39,794) and NSW (39,089). The strongest annual growth in sales volumes was in NSW, up by 10.9% compared to the prior year. 
• In value terms, a total of $150.6 billion was spent on property in the Mar-24 quarter, up by 17.2% compared to the same period one year earlier (Mar-23 Qtr), but down by 14.7% on the previous quarter. 
• Across the five mainland states, the highest aggregate value of sales was in NSW ($54.5bn), followed by VIC and QLD. The strongest annual growth in total sales value was in NSW (up by 24.0% from the prior year).

The dip in sales in March compared to the previous quarter represents a seasonal decline, because the December quarter is typically a strong period for sales volumes. In comparison, the March quarter is usually the weakest quarter in any given year. This seasonal decline was compounded in 2024 by a higher than normal number of public holidays at the end of March, due to the early Easter holidays. This ‘early Easter’ effect meant that some sales were probably pushed out to later in April, instead of being finalised in March.

• Australia’s property market was better supported by economic fundamentals in the first months of 2024 than it had been one year earlier. This was reflected in ongoing recovery in sales volumes – and aggregate and median sales values – over the year.
  
• Interest rates have been stable since November 2023 and have remained relatively low in real terms and compared to long-run historical averages. 
• At the same time, Australia’s labour market has remained remarkably resilient. This strength in the labour market, particularly the absence of widespread job losses, has been crucial to averting a material increase in mortgagee sales or defaults. 
• In 2024 to date, further property price rises have stoked concerns about worsening affordability and seen a return of ‘FOMO’ in locations with particularly limited supply.
• Looking ahead, Australia’s underlying market for residential and other property is likely to remain strong in 2024. Demand is being buoyed by high growth in net migration, jobs and household formation. Construction supply constraints are limiting the rate at which new homes can be added to the market, and so demand for established homes is likely to continue to outpace supply.

• Volume of residential sales: 146,978 
• All eastern states saw double digit declines in the volume of residential property bought in the Mar-24 Qtr.  
• Although residential sale settlements fell in all states relative to the Dec-23 Qtr, WA was the most resilient with 21,440 transactions, only a 6.0% decrease compared to the prior quarter.   

• In the Mar-24 Qtr, across the five mainland states, the regions all recorded smaller declines compared to their metropolitan counterparts compared to the previous quarter.  
• Sales volumes in VIC are potentially buoyed by investors motivated to sell in a warming property market, to avoid increased land tax bills announced in the 2023-24 Victorian Budget.

• Postcodes associated with a high level of greenfield development often rank among the top-10 for each of the states. 
• Nationally, postcode 3029 (Tarneit) recorded the highest number of residential sale settlements. 

• A total of $132.2 billion was spent on residential property in the Mar-24 Qtr, 16.7% higher than the same period in the previous year (but down 15.4% from the previous quarter). 
• All eastern states saw double digits declines in the aggregate value of residential sales from the previous quarter, with NSW falling by 19.6%, VIC by 17.5% and QLD by 13.5%. 

• Volume of commercial sales across our three largest states: 6,228 
• VIC recorded the highest number of commercial settlements (2,272), followed by QLD (2,104) and NSW (1,852). 

• Commercial settlements remain sluggish in the metropolitan areas, but NSW and QLD post a minor improvement compared to last year’s result. 
• Greater Sydney recorded the sharpest fall in commercial sale settlements, down 39.3% from the Dec-23 Qtr.  
• Commercial sales in Greater Melbourne and Greater Brisbane were similarly sluggish, down 31.3% and 20.5% respectively compared to the previous quarter.  
• Ongoing weak demand for commercial real estate, such as office buildings could be a factor weighing on settlement volumes. 

• A total of $18.4 billion was spent on commercial property in the eastern states, with all three eastern states experienced significant declines. 
• NSW spent $7.5 billion on commercial property in the Mar-24 quarter, followed by VIC with $5.9 billion and QLD with $5.0 billion.

Notes: 

This report aims to provide a comprehensive view of property settlement trends in Australia, In this report ‘national’ is defined as the 5 mainland states: NSW, VIC, QLD, WA & SA (our analysis excludes TAS, ACT & NT which combined made up less than 5% of the total property settlements in Australia in CY23). Settlement figures quoted are total settlements, they include all digital and paper-based settlements for residential and commercial property unless otherwise stated. Non-monetary settlements such as family transfers or gifts have been excluded.  

For further enquiries about this report or PEXA data, please contact us at research@pexa.com.au. 

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